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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
4 OCT-5 OCT ACTIVE STORM G2
5 OCT-6 OCT STORM G1 STORM G3
6 OCT-7 OCT STORM G1 STORM G2

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 24 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
3 OCT-4 OCT QUIET QUIET 12:00-15:00 QUIET ACTIVE 12:00-15:00

Additional Comments

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with an X7.1 flare on 01-Oct-2024 is anticipated to arrive during the first forecast interval, increasing geomagnetic activity possibly up to STORM G2 levels.
On 03-Oct-2024 an X9 class flare was observed with an associated halo CME from the same active region as the aforementioned X7.1 flare. This was followed by further M class flares and CMEs. The first CME is modelled to arrive late on 05-Oct-2024 or early 06-Oct-2024, STORM G3 conditions are possible with a chance of STORM G4 should these events catch up with each other. Heightened geomagnetic activity is expected over the second and third forecast intervals from the effects of these CMEs.
Time of forecast: 04 Oct 2024
© UKRI