Geomagnetic storm forecast - 14^th April 2025

What Has Happened?

We are expecting an increase in geomagnetic activity over the next few days due to increased solar activity, with a possibility that conditions may reach up to STORM G3.

Two coronal mass ejections (CME) left the Sun starting at approximately 00:30 UT and 07:30 UT on 13^th April. Each CME was associated with large filament eruptions, with dense material observed, lifting off close to the centre of the solar disc.

The second, faster and larger CME is expected to combine with the first slower one and arrive simultaneously, late on 15^th or early 16^th April, and predicted to lead to significant enhancement in geomagnetic activity, making STORM periods likely. NOAA Geomagnetic storm scales.

Assuming clear dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora tomorrow and on Wednesday night. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

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Glossary

BGS

The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection

The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Filament Eruption

An eruption of solar plasma (i.e. ions and electrons) associated with the upward movement of solar magnetic field lines into the corona. Filaments are usually dark against the bright solar disk but can appear bright (as 'erupting prominences') on the limbs of the Sun against the darkness of space. Filaments are often associated with CMEs