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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
9 OCT-10 OCT QUIET STORM G2
10 OCT-11 OCT QUIET STORM G2
11 OCT-12 OCT QUIET STORM G2

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 24 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
8 OCT-9 OCT QUIET ACTIVE 00:00-03:00 QUIET ACTIVE 00:00-03:00

Additional Comments

There are currently multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the forecast that are expected to influence geomagnetic activity over the coming days. There is also a chance for some effects from a southern coronal hole during the first two forecast intervals.
The first CME (from 6th Oct) was expected early this morning, but has not yet arrived. Although it is later than expected it could still lead to ACTIVE to STORM G1 levels of geomagnetic activity, with a chance for some STORM G2 periods during the first forecast interval. A CME from 7th Oct may hit the Earth with a glancing blow during the second forecast interval, again elevating geomagnetic activity, with a chance for some STORM G1, and maybe STORM G2 periods.
Another CME was observed yesterday (8th Oct), associated with an M6.7 class solar flare. Although the bulk of the ejecta is headed northwest, this CME may hit the Earth with a glancing blow during the third forecast interval. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase as a result, whith a chance for some STORM G2 periods.
Time of forecast: 09 Oct 2026
© UKRI